187 or 188 Day Earthquake Cycle Theory Examined — Accurate Predictions or Inevitable Coincidence?

Many have tried to use the 188-day cycle theory not only to predict when an earthquake is likely to occur, but where as well. However, the where part was not nearly as successful.

EDITOR’S NOTE:  In light of the earthquake today in Nepal and renewed interest in this phenomenon, we decided to move this old article to the front page temporarily.  Thanks for reading.


The 188-day earthquake cycle theory has been circulating around the Internet, mainly on conspiracy forums and websites, for quite a while.  While it’s tough to track down where this originated from, the supporters of the theory present a barrage of factual evidence to back this up.  According to the 188 day cycle, a major earthquake was predicted to strike the Earth somewhere between March 21 and 23 of 2012.  The reason for the range is because the days are not an accurate way of measuring these things.  Our timekeeping system on Earth is accurate enough for most of our ordinary comings and goings, but it is not exactly in time with the Earth’s adventures as it revolves around the sun.  Anyway, interest in the theory is picking up as a strong earthquake did indeed strike Mexico City today, March 20, 2012, seemingly close to the predicted date.  Naturally, it sponsors some intrigue when a theory like this seems to work out to be correct right before our eyes, but it’s important to remember to check the facts.  So, that’s what Common Sense Conspiracy did.

The first thing we wanted to do was to check out previous earthquakes that supposedly fit in line with the 188-day cycle and make sure that what supporters say is in accordance with actual seismological records.  Those that advocate the cycle say that it matches up as far back as recorded history where earthquakes are concerned goes.  Well, we don’t have time to check them out that far, but for now, let’s look back at the past four earthquakes that are listed as evidence of the cycle.

One website we visited that obviously touts the cycle theory as scientific fact listed the following earthquakes as proof:

Chile — February 27, 2010 — 8.8-magnitude

New Zealand — September 4, 2010 — 7.1-magnitude

Japan — March 11, 2011 — 9.1-magnitude

Fiji — September 15, 2011 — 7.2-magnitude

First of all, the dates all fall between 186 and 190 days apart.  While the theory focuses on 188 days, there is some room for error there, and we don’t really see a problem with that.  So the dates are fairly close to the range prescribed by the cycle.  So far, so good.  Now, we check the information against official records of earthquakes.  According to the United States Geological Survey, all of the dates are correct, except for the New Zealand quake.  The USGS lists it as occurring on September 3, which is only one day difference and would actually help the theory by making the time between Chile and New Zealand 189 days instead of 190.  So, it appears the information for these four quakes is good, the counts between quakes is good, and it does seem to have some validity.  However, if you take all the earthquakes in the 7.0-magnitude range that happen on the Earth across a year, you will find that they are much more frequent than every 188 days.  Actually, statistically speaking, an earthquake of this variety generally happens every 25 days.  If you took the complete list of earthquakes, there is little doubt that you could find other “significant” patterns if you only stuck to the ones that worked with your theory.  Meaning, if you decide the cycle is 90 days, there is an excellent chance that if you take a list of earthquakes over the years, you will be able to find some instances where the prediction seems accurate.  However, could the particular earthquakes that did happen approximately 188 days out be caused by some sort of scientific phenomenon?  We looked further.

There is no scientific study that we could locate that details anything regarding the 188-day earthquake cycle theory.  When we say none, we mean none.  Zero.  Like we said before, it is hard to determine who originally coined the theory, but there is a DVD available for sale at a website called Rabbit Hole called “188 Days” that apparently outlines the finer points of the theory.  Naturally, Rabbit Hole is a conspiracy site whose catch phrase is “decoding the puzzle.”

So, when it’s all said and done, it is absolutely true that a significant earthquake event did happen around 188 days out on each of those four instances.  As long as you disregard all of the other earthquakes, the theory holds true.  But then, the Mexico City earthquake comes along right on time, making it five in a row.  So what are the odds that if the theory was not based in fact that an earthquake would happen in the appropriate time period.  Well, the earthquake cycle theory helps itself out by not being so precise.  After all, we have already established from the previous data that anything from 186 to 190 days is considered acceptable proof by the proponents of the theory.  So with four days margin of error being acceptable, and knowing that one of these earthquakes statistically should happen every 25 days anyway, there is a fairly good chance that an earthquake can come along sometime in the time window to keep the theory going.  In this case, it did just that.  The Mexico City earthquake will be claimed as fulfillment of the cycle theory, but it actually was a day early, if we want to get technical.  Of course, if another major earthquake happens in the next two or three days, the theorists can then jump on that as the real 188-day earthquake and write the Mexico City one off as an unrelated incident.

So, as you can see, while the statistics seem to back up the theory, it’s fairly easy to find something that will.

Does this mean that there is no truth to the 188-day cycle theory?  No, it means there is no proof of it.  There is no scientific basis or information that backs this up except cherry-picking the statistical data.  However, it has proven to be true for five cycles now, and that’s a pretty good track record.  In the end, as almost always, the only thing that matters is what do you think?
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36 thoughts on “187 or 188 Day Earthquake Cycle Theory Examined — Accurate Predictions or Inevitable Coincidence?”

  1. To me, you either believe that theres a interested creator with a plan, or you don’t [both require a position of faith]. What we think is not ‘the only thing that matters’, it’s “do you know the One who is above it all, personally?

    1. At the risk of being labelled a Christian site (as we have many times before), we gotta say, I hear ya brother.

    2. Oh I think there is an intelegent design in these earthquakes but I don’t think it is God. But rather man using a god machine. If you look at the map of the earthquakes that were drawn out.. Look also at the map that shows the location of all the HAARP’s and then you will see they are so strinkingly similar it will smack you up side the head. HAARP is capable of not only making earthquakes but also storms or even preventing storms from happening in certian areas as well distorting Magnetic navigation of Birds and sea life. And manipulating human behavior. So if you live in any of the area’s where a HAARP facility is.. Listen for the humming sound that will drive you nuts. Weird chemtrails and bizare storm clouds that look alot like ripples in water after a stone is dropped in it. But much more in the way of bizaare is it can direct a path for larger storm systems using both HAARP and Chemtrails.

    3. Good thing ‘To You’ doesn’t matter to anyone else… Not believing in a creator requires no faith, it is a default stance. All evidence points to there being no creator, there is 0 pointing to anything else. If you think otherwise, you are wrong. Science doesn’t concern itself with opinions. I think that’s the greatest part of it.

      1. There is one problem.. Until the 19th century, beliving in a creator WAS the default stance. Evidence… You say there is none, but the whole bible is evidence. Over 1 quarter of the bible is prophecy, (I believe about 25 thousand verses or something) and up to date they have been accurate.. So yes, there is tons of evidence. And then there’s the demons that have been cast out if you do not immediately discard it as rubbish(also requiring faith) and then there’s the fact that there’s zero logic to a universe being created out of nothing and then having something magically evolve and improve on itself by evolving(how does anything become smart enough evolve its own brain, anyways?). And then there’s the fact that if earth or the sun was 1/trilionth farther or closer than it is to each other, we’d either burn or freeze and so on… You say there is no evidence, but the whole world is evidence around you. And besides, HOW ON EARTH would humans rize to the top of the chain with our squishy bodies and hands? Why hasn’t any other creature stronger and faster evolved enough that it could easily overtake humans? I mean, seriously… What have humans got on them that could allow us to rize to the top. BESIDES.. Wouldn’t an evolved human like ourselves be smart enough to evolve our bodies into something more protected or useful?

        1. Alex, DNA IS science,#1 observation, #2 experimentation, #3 replication,
          and the amazing complexity PROVES evolution is either a MIRACLE or SCAM.

          I am amazed that Christ not only knew “the very hairs on your head
          ARE ALL NUMBERED” 2,000 years ago, but that society would return to “as it was in Noah’s day” with the corruption of the DNA of species, plants, etc,
          and it grieved God”s heart that he made man.

          After the flood, they built the FIRST Babylon, and you can SEE the LAST Babylon
          being built TODAY, and the sodomites of Lot’s day are slaughtering Christ’s
          chosen ones all around the world and the churchoids are silent. ??

          With the feast of Trumpets coming up Oct 6-8th, and Draco the dragon and the
          meteor shower at the same time, I was checking out the 3 people who had
          dreams/visions about Oct 3rd 9.7 earthquake on the west coast, and heard that
          the 188 day cycle would be Oct 6th, with the world in such turmoil with “wars
          and rumors of wars” (wars crimes really) and “nation rising against nation” and
          the “kingdoms (darkness/deception) rising against kingdoms” (Light/Truth)
          and the daily blood sacrifices being offered all around the world, it would be a
          perfect time for Christ to snatch all of us (weak minded) believers on “the day
          and hour, no man knoweth”

          1. Experimentation you say? Evolutionary experimentation?

            There isn’t any. Cite some. Oh, sure, Dr. Ralph Seelke, which proves that
            evolution “doesn’t do much, if anything”.

            Looks like your science needs some lab experiments to validate
            its hypothesis.

  2. No, I believe people who believe in the 2012 theory, as a whole, are using this 188 day cycle, sub-theory, to convince themselves of the end of the world.

    1. We know a thing or two about that. We have several articles about why the 2012 predictions are nonsense… but we remain open to anyone that has a varying view.

    2. i believe in the 188 day theory. Sept. 25ish should make it the sixth one. but what if it DOES hold again? what then? its happened 5 times.

  3. I appreciate your reasoned look at this. What you didn’t address was that the proponents of this theory are blaming the cycle on a mysteriously hidden brown dwarf star that affects our planet every time our rotation lines up with it. This “second sun” scenario also came up with all of the hoopla about Comet Elenin last year.

    1. Thanks, Terry. We were aware of that, but we decided not to delve into it at this time, but rest assured we are on top of the situation. We covered Comet Elenin extensively last year and will continue to stay on top of these developments. Thanks so much for stopping by and participating in the discussion.

      1. I was going to post the same comment as Terry. The only thing I could add is that there are other pieces
        of evidence (or coincidences) that fit in with the approaching high density object hypothesis. But I will not
        bother to list them here. We will have to wait until at least August to know for sure.

        I am a first time visitor to your blog and I was impressed with your assessment as I felt you were fair. It is
        always good to hash out all sides of an issue.

        1. While it is true that SOME people are claiming the 188 day cycle (if it exists) is due to some brown dwarf or other “Nemesis” object, others keep an open mind. Kinda like UFOs, really – you get some people that think EVERY SINGLE THING IN THE AIR is an alien spacecraft, but you also get “serious” UFOlogists who do believe in alien visitation but still acknowledge misidentification, hoaxes, and so on.

          Fanatics and openminded people, respectively.

          There may indeed be some truth to this; I for one have marked the next date in my calendar, so I’m ready to check for timely quakes in half a year. Even so, I’d say the chances that this is due to a brown dwarf “twin” of our sun are slim to none: while it’s relatively easy to keep secrets in the military with its chain of command and indoctrination, it’s much more difficult to keep scientific secrets. If one scientist finds something andthey’re convinced the science is sound, they’ll publish and that’s that.

    1. You’re right Luis. There is a lot of scientific and statistical data to indicate there isn’t anything to it, but the sheer fact that it keeps being right helps, doesn’t it?

      1. You already have your map of the earthquakes and peculiar events regarding nature. I would ask that you also look up the locations of the HAARP as they now stand. I admit that the data on the program is a bit old but there are sites more current and give a list of times they are used. Colaborate your map with the HAARP around the world and you will see a very significant and undeniable pattern. Not just with earthquakes but also with storms flooding, droubt, hurricanes, and animal life that are found dead all over the world and even burned. Fires in the Western and Mid Western United States as well. I think we could go along way with this conspiracy as none of my officials here in Alaska would grant me a trip to see it much less discuss it and it is heavily gaurded. But it is a fine toy if you want to rule the world without toxifying it like a nuke. In fact it does what a nuke can do minus 1000 of years of radiation. Have fun.

    2. In the natural setting I agree it would be extremely rare. But I would like to opine a certian man made element to the argument that does not deal with God although he probably is mad. It doesn’t involve erratic orbiting planets either. I would direct your attention to a more human possibility. Tesla technology. On a massive scale all around the world. We are told these sites are to improve our understanding of the weather, communications, predicting earthquakes, and human and animal psychology. Indeed research by the government has been fascinated by all of these things since the 40’s. As we have advanced so do the toys. The Tesla I speak of is not your local hospital MRI and CAT scans. But HAARP Induction Magnometer can do much more then we are allowed to be told. I would recommend strongly that you look up HAARP and you will learn that most of what we are seeing is in line with what that thing can do. And since Reagan of 1985 has been building these things all around the world. With each passing decade its use compounds issues in nature respectively as more such 12 mile area’s are set up. This folks is the non nuclear dooms day device of the 21 century.

  4. We feel the same way. Scientific evidence shows that there’s probably nothing to it, and yet it seems to come through like clockwork, doesn’t it?

    1. I know this may sound weird but when I drew out the dates to each of the earthquakes and their locations for the theory of 188 days I found a patter that is exactly correlated to the positions of all the HAARP Tesla Radio wave lands are located and they are the same at each point. This cannot be a coincident. You can verify it yourself using the map that is used to show each earthquake on the 188 day cycle and compaire it the locations of the HAARPS around the world. It will freak you out.

      1. Paffa Ferguson could you show me the mapping of those earthquakes correlating with the positions of HAARP?

  5. The theory is definitely worth noting .From whom I’ve found to be the originator of the theory (I’m not wholly committed to delve any deeper ), there’s a little more to it that just the 188 day cycle. The person/group/site by the name of Terral (terral03.com & youtube channel) is implying that the approaching comet ELENIN is partially if not wholly responsible for this cycle.

    I understand that the researchers on this site (common sense conspiracy) touched on the ELENIN thing in the past but it seems to be an integral part to the “188 day” theory.

  6. yes a 7.0 earthquake happens every 25 also shows we have much more 7.0 then ever before

  7. hr/min/sec hand at 1/8/8 = 1:40:40
    14040 seconds = 39 minutes
    —>3.9 minutes = 3:54 (min/sec)
    —>GOD = 354 (HEBREW)

    18.8 minutes = 1128 seconds
    —>11/28 = 333rd Day (leap year)

    18.8 minutes = 18:48 (min/sec)
    18:48 = 6:48 PM
    —>6:48 is opposite 12:12 on a clock face
    —>1200 seconds = 0.333 hours

    648 seconds = 10:48 (min/sec)
    148.0 Days = 5/28
    —>Yehoshua / Yahushuah (salvation) = 528 (hebrew)

    5:28 is opposite 7:32 on a clock face
    732 seconds = 12:12 (min/sec)

    min/hr hand at 12/12 = 12:00
    —>min/hr hand at THE MOST HIGH (luke 1:35)

    —>REVELATIONS 22:13

    12:00 AM = 00:00 (GENESIS 1:1)

    1/333 = = 0.0300300
    3:00 PM = 15:00
    15 = 5+2+8

    hr/min/sec hand at 3/3/3 = 15:15:15

    1. 3.9 minutes = 234 seconds
      23.3444 hours = 84040 seconds
      8:40:40 = hr/min/sec hand at 8/8/8
      —>IESOUS = 888 (HEBREW)
      —>MESSIAH = 888 (HEBREW)

      888 seconds = 14.8 minutes
      148th Day = 5/28
      Yehoshua / Yahushuah (salvation) = 528 (hebrew)

      39 x 39 = 1521

      THE MESSIAH = 726 (HEBREW)

  8. i’d like to salute to whom are trying figure out different formula resolving the exact day EARTHQUAKE movement.

  9. Very good article! We are linking to this great post on our site.
    Keep up the great writing.

  10. yes, a 7.0 or bigger eq happens almost everyday and anyone can find a pattern that links them. the major significance of these earthquakes are being overlooked-they are major earthquakes WITH A HIGH FATALITY RATE AND HIGH POPULATION resulting in catastrophe. thats what i important about the 188 days theory. They are not just big quakes, they are in a area of high population.

  11. Thanks for your interesting open minded analysis.

    Since the posting of you article about the 188 days cycle, few quakes happened here and there. We are of today (when I write) on the 10th of September 2012.

    To come to the month of September, if I understand, there should be a big one for the 25ish september. But what to think about the two big earthquake of 7.6 each who happend in the Phillipines (31st of August) and in Costa Rica (5th of September) – one week apart (not even 25 days difference which defy even the statistic). For the region they happened they really are considered big.

    The question we should ask also is – when is an earthquake considered big enough to fit the 188 cycle? When we take the four you listed – They are really big difference. Between, the NZ 7.1 and the Japan 9.1 you have two degree difference, which on the Richter Scale is huge (being a logarithmic scale). In fact, there is not even comparison to be made between them.
    Chile — February 27, 2010 — 8.8-magnitude
    New Zealand — September 4, 2010 — 7.1-magnitude
    Japan — March 11, 2011 — 9.1-magnitude
    Fiji — September 15, 2011 — 7.2-magnitude

    So, if we agree that a 7M and above has to be considered big, then the 188 cycle does not fit any data (unless we willingly forget the big quakes which does not fit the theory). Now of course, there is two other points to keep in mind – 1) natural occurences of quakes, 2) artificial occurences of quakes (HAARP or other means if we believe in those technological possibilities).

    As far as NATURAL occurences go the 188 cycle is a total non-sense because it can not fit any data from USGS, EMSC, PHIVOLCS, etc, in regard to big quakes.

    Left with artificial occurences maybe it can fit. Remain then to explain why that cycle in this particular occasion? Maintenance, recharging, whatever if we accept a technological tool being applied. Then we could also ask, why even use that “tool” in those specific places? What’s the point?

    It was just my two pences in the discussion. 🙂

    Tahnks again for the article,
    Regards, Joël

  12. I have done research into this…I have found that the moon is either full or in transition to a full moon at the time these quakes happened. Also, something they all had in common were the F.O.V. of these …Capella 4, Aldebaran 4, Procyon 3, Gemini 3, Sirius 3. I don’t know about the 188 day cycle, seems they are just trying to get a grip on predicting, but I don’t see how we can even begin to predict where they are going to happen, maybe we can guess a day, but where… I do know I had a feeling come over me when I was doing some screen shots of the solar eclipse…the energy surrounding it seemed very strong and I felt for certain that the Australian region was going to experience major upheaval in the 2 weeks following, so far I have seen what I felt … but I am still expecting something very big 7. or higher…volcanoes erupting somewhere I don’t know it was a very strong feeling on my part back on the 11th of November. I hope whatever I felt does not involve major deaths.

  13. Visit Teral03’s site on Youtube. He can link you to all sorts of data on this…Postulates that the cause of this is an inbound, brown dwarf star which is tugging on polarity control of the Earth as we pass between it’s gravity trough connecting it with it’s binary star (our Sun).

  14. Congrats on you’re long run with high probabilities hits but looks like you are finally out of luck.

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