Category Archives: Possible Iran War

Tensions Increase Between U.S. and Iran Over Oil Transportation — Harbinger of Things to Come?

Regular readers of Common Sense Conspiracy know that we have been advising for months now that an international crisis involving Iran is brewing.  A lot of people thought the finalizing of the troop withdrawal from Iraq was some sign that the United States was finally lowering its visibility in the region, but tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to approach the boiling point.  First was an accident where Iranians successfully confiscated a United States unmanned drone plane no doubt on a reconnaissance mission in Iranian airspace.  Now, the navy chief of Iran issued a stern warning that if the United States and other nations continue to consider further sanctions against Iran, they will close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for transportation of oil.

According to Iran, the country can close the Strait of Hormuz, located right at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, easily.  This is the route that one-sixth of the world’s oil passes through during exportation.  This was the second time Iran threatened this course of action.  Basically, the Iranians are saying that if more sanctions are levied against their country over their suspected nuclear arms program, they will simply clamp down on the supply of oil.  Of course, the United States relies heavily on oil that passes through this strait, and the economic effects would be felt in America almost instantly, not just in the form of gas prices, but also in the fragile stock market.

Initially, Iran’s threat didn’t have many teeth, as Saudi Arabia, cautious American “ally” in the Middle East, immediately pledged its support by saying that if Iran does close the strait, they will make up for the lost oil.  This insurance policy seemed to appease the stock market thus far.  However, today, the United States expressed its displeasure with the Iranian threat by warning them that any disruption of the oil route in the Strait of Hormuz “will not be tolerated.”

The real issue here is that Iran is threatening to close the strait, but these are international waters, and they really don’t have the right to take such an action because Iranian oil is not the only oil that passes through the region.  The U.S. Navy says that it is ready to act if the international freedom of navigation in the Strait is violated.  To further drive home their point, the Iranian navy is currently conducting a 10-day war drill near the Strait where their exercises are taking them very close to U.S. warships.  There is little doubt that the timing of the war games is to demonstrate to the U.S. and the world that Iran has the prowess to do just what it says it will.  The United States and Iran have long been a bomb waiting to explode, and these kind of tensions could be the very thing to speed up a war that is almost certainly to come.  Also, Israel waits in the wings, salivating over the opportunity to violently eliminate Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear program.  The entire affair is a haunting reminder that while so many of our troops were able to make it home and enjoy a great holiday with their families, there is no guarantee that their homecoming is a permanent one.

Iran Behind 9/11

The U.S. seems to be having trouble getting everyone on the war with Iran bandwagon. So what do they do? The tried and true method to get suppport — invoke 9/11. A U.S. court has claimed that Iran was behind 9/11 by providing support for the hijackers. Will this latest ploy by the U.S. generate the support for the war effort they need? Only time will tell.

U.S. Troops’ Departure from Iraq Makes Israeli Plans for Iran Easier

"I'll be home for Christmas..."

The news that the withdrawal of the military from Iraq is now complete is great to hear for all Americans.  Regardless of your viewpoints on the war throughout, our soldiers overseas have always been on our hearts and minds, and nothing can make all of us happier during this holiday season than to know that our heroes are finally home.  It is important that each and every one of us makes an effort to express our appreciation for what these brave men and women have done, especially in a time when veterans are finding it more and more difficult to integrate back into normal civilian life.  It is our sincere hope that our troops are home for a long, long time.  However, the news that the United States is officially out of Iraq does not in any way lessen the growing conflict between Iran, Iraq’s neighbor, and the United States and Israel.

On the surface, it may seem that the pullout of American forces would be a good sign.  After all, it seems unlikely that the United States would remove itself from what would be a great strategic position if it were secretly planning an invasion of Iran.  However, looking deeper into the politics of the situation, you can see that the departure actually accelerates the likelihood of a war with Iran.  To the casual observer, it seems that some sort of great debate is underway about whether action must be taken to stop Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and how exactly stopping it could be accomplished.  However, the reality is that there is no debate.  The war has already begun, albeit quietly in the shadows.  Enter an organization that you have probably never heard of, the Brookings Institution.  Perhaps you have heard reference in the media to Washington’s “think tanks.”  The Brookings Institution is the oldest and most influential of these.  Washington think tanks take goals provided to them by the military and political leaders and aggressively research it, looking at it from all angles, leaving no stone uncovered.  They run different scenarios and brainstorm with ideas about how to handle various parts of the operation.  For each individual goal, they reach not only a conclusion to recommend to their superiors, but also a detailed plan that explains and extrapolates exactly how the plan will be brought to fruition.  Sometimes the policies and directives are decades in advance of the ultimate goal.  The final opinion of the think tank is delivered in a report format.  As you might imagine, these reports can be thousands of pages long.

The road to Iran, for Israel, runs through Iraq.

In 2009, the Brookings Institution was given the task of developing a strategy for confronting Iran on its nuclear weapons programs once and for all.  Since their report, entitled “Which Way to Persia?” was passed on to Washington, the directives in it have been followed perfectly to bring about regime change in Iran.  One of the major problems the Brookings think tank saw with possible military action against Iran was the occupation of Iraq by American forces.  While this seems like an advantage on the surface, upon further examination, it is easy to see that it actually presents many problems.  See, when Brookings was asked to plan a strategy for confronting Iran, it really was not a confrontation at all.  It was more like a strategy to bring about regime change in Iran with the United States government somehow coming out smelling like a rose.  The United States occupation of Iraq hurt this on two fronts.  First of all, as long as American troops were still present, Brookings figured that the anti-American sentiment in the Middle East would only worsen.  The sudden departure of the troops (sudden, at least, in that no one really thought the timetable set would actually be followed) set up a great moment for President Obama and the United States to signal a change in foreign policy.  Like a Christmas present with a big bow on top, Obama gets to ride the fence between complimenting the American’s actions in Iraq and the achievements of the troops and also extending an olive branch to the Middle East.  He says, essentially, “Look, I kept my word.”  This doubles as a positive for Obama because it fulfills one of the campaign promises most central to his first campaign and helps increase the United States’ standing in the eyes of the Middle-Eastern nations.  See, the idea is for the U.S. to pull out of Iraq and appear to have washed their hands of the whole thing.  The reality is that the departure paves the way for Israel to do what they have been wanting to do for nearly a decade:  bomb Iran’s nuclear program back into the stone age. Continue reading U.S. Troops’ Departure from Iraq Makes Israeli Plans for Iran Easier